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tv   [untitled]    May 5, 2013 12:00am-12:31am PDT

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so i'd like to introduce doctor dan >> good afternoon thank you. i would like to mention that i'm in a company by our san francisco partners in this work. we have a slide presentation i hope that it's assessable. it doesn't have expect for feedback on a township meeting it summarizes the report but i'd like to put it together as an
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easier to a grasp story swipg the evidence in a way that might make sense. so as you heard it's the first of a series of reports if someone wants to know why are not i talking about enforcement. we'll be talking about that but you need those taxes the enforcements is a strategy to get to the process. the way i hope to approach this is to ask how many taxis and then a little bit of a side issue why is the sighed car not the solution. we ask ourselves that question, too, and we have an answer for you. then as the port structure there's a good solution we think
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are important and from there recommendations. as you know this is based 3 documents. i should review this is our general approach is to rely on multiple lines of studies. this is to get the local story and history it's difficult to get user voices so we use tourism hospitality and all the folks we talked to have their story. to reach out further we says drivers individualsly.
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in fact, a large sample was results by neighborhood. it was an informative reach. as economists we look at how it's structured. we look at other cities we have our model of taxi demand and we go out on the street so we did some extensive street observations. and you yourself have been looking at this for quite a while. we should start by defining what we mean by taxi shortage you can't what does that mean? there's slack period as taxis will be relatively inaccompanied. but in many cities where the
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bars close at the same time it is impossible. we hope to meet the afternoon peak. there will be a fair degree of empty taxis because of the distribution of demand. so whatever you do wherever you do it even at peak demand there's some emptiness in the taxis. but you want a regular peak time where the taxis are waiting for the customers not the other way around >> the conclusion is that san francisco has a shortage and we take that evidence from multiple sources. first of all, we see it on the street in that our diagrams don't fully capture.
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those bars there a taxi gets a customer is the time involved. this is one example of a large number that we did at different times of day on the thunders afternoon peak not friday. now, it's true most of the taxis got a customer in the time of two minutes. if you can get a customer in two minutes downtown and it's consistent across any time why would i drive out and preposition yourself in the suburbia's to get to a call. this right away would be the evidence. but our chart didn't capture
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this. in this observation there were stance of no taxis. this was not a unique observation. we also see it in the under arrest of your dispatch markets. you have many records in the past about no shows we asked people in the surveys different questions. how long does it take to depreciate a taxi to our home. we did that by neighborhood. overall one of the persons said their service was terrible and it gets worse in the southern parts. in terms of what we should expect we should have service win 15 minutes most of the time. in los angeles they achieve
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service in 15 minutes. here only 56 percent experienced long times during the day and friday and saturday night much, much worse and here's the number of folks who expect thirty minutes or no shows over time. pretty poor service. when we look at getting our economist hat and look at the year 2000. that green line as you see it slowly rising and a skipping some of the detail the central line starts at the regular basis and says what happened to taxi
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demand given the meter rate and a number of factors and commuters coming into town. you put those together and the line dips below after the expansion. then there's another dip there and the most recently recession then a it across the green line and if you train forward to the current year then if i look at it you say last year the demand was up 23 percent but we only have 14.9 percent more taxis but you authorized more. you put 0 those together it looks like you've got just enough. and we believe that you have at
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this moment once they're all out on the street you'd be able to restore that balance in the year 2000. that just means you'd have the same poor dispatch service there was 38 percent no-show service on people calling taxis to their home. so you would have the major problem still out there plus it's not the year 2000 anymore. and consumers choices are under attack. the limos are eating away at the share. the share rides are assaulting taxi shares. there's a potential risk that if the taxis don't fill the gap
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that you could have the reverse collapses or you might end up would too. taxis but this is a necessary service. when strangers pickup strangers in the dark they'd like to have a clear register and driver which cities have that >> you can't go back in time. to meet the counter challenge and to provide the people with the service they need and one i need it by filling that avoid void. there's 40 percent of residents they'd take a taxi more
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frequently. most would increase late night entertainment use. more people would take taxis to work if it was reliable. and one of the more interesting points when we in our survey asked the limousine users some like the luxury a maybe 40 percent said the luxury. but 90 percent agreed that 5 out of 5 mostly in reaching their agreement i take a limo because it will come to their home. now, when he go to compare
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city's on a per capital basis san francisco is the red one there. you can see cities with fewer and more taxis including new york which is served by black cars in new york not taxis. we need to place e ourselves here to see how many taxis we need. one place that san francisco stands out is the low levels of vehicle ownership. a lot of homeowners can't food the vehicles. so a few points of interest on a scale diagram we're gop up and
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to the right have the highest level of non-car ownership. so san francisco is the red dot you see it's below that average line. as the line rises the higher the average number of taxis. if san francisco would move up to the average line the pink bar that would be a 90 percent increase in your number of taxis. but that's overstating your need because that's also cutting into the profitability. in washington, d.c. there's no value and new orleans it's very low. and that is not just this service it's affecting the
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driver. if we look at the color peers like boston and chicago have strong values equal but they have a lot of taxis and in the number of household without vehicles. so out of that we said not 90 percent but 50 percent roughly matches your peers with the same relatively healthy income. having said that 50 percent not all at one customer's don't change their habits automatically and the industry needs time to get drivers out and drivers trained it takes
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experienced drivers where to be otherwise they're all ended up at the same place like the airports. so we rementsdz additional 2 hundred in 2014. and then we come to the question of how good is a argue crystal ball as an economist were we think the best way to manage it is to judge its own privity ability. if someone commits to the industry then the case is there. as people make that collective you decision that would govern the pace of expansion and the business we expect to see growing out there.
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now why are sidecar and lifts a solution. while they're a new alternative and tlts there's a place for each service by roadway there's a vast market that's left under served by taxi industry. we have to remember that quite a few people don't use limousines. and of those who use limousines they almost also want that to come to their door. the limousines are more expensive and there's a safety issue. but it's not just people that take time to change their habits to use the taxis criminals take
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time too to adopt that were as time progresses we can expect to see more cost-effective services. and also perhaps less supervision and less attention than we see now. in the end we're just waiting for the wrong kind of headline. and the kidnapper. you could look for a sign that someone posts on their car and it could be phoney.